Friday, September 16, 2005

Elections

Three elections loom this weekend, two of them key.
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First on deck is Saturday's election in New Zealand that pits incumbent Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark against former central bank governor Don Brash of the National party. From a U.S. perspective Brash is clearly the preferred winner. He has indicated a willingness to scrap New Zealand's status as a nuclear-free zone in exchange for a free trade deal with the U.S., and on the domestic front has promised to trim taxes and eliminate racial preferences for the native Maoris.
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Clark has also proven to be no friend of the Bush Administration, sniping at Bush on occasion. While you can agree or disagree with her remarks, it has scuppered chances for a bilateral free trade deal and harmed New Zealand.
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You can monitor election results here.
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Sunday, meanwhile, features the two big ones. First are the parliamentary and provincial assembly elections in Afghanistan. No clear winner is preferred here, we should just hope for a minimum of violence that would serve as a strike against the Taliban.
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The other election, of course, is the long-anticipated contest between incumbent Gerhard Schroeder and CDU candidate Angela Merkel. While Merkel is likely to emerge as the next Bundeskanzler,Schroeder has staged a furious last-minute rally and cannot be written off.
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The obvious preference here is for a convincing Merkel win. Schroeder has been a failure for Germany, doing little to right its sinking economic ship and allying the country with France on foreign affairs. Even if Schroeder were serious about introducing economic reforms in the country his political allies are sufficiently staunchly left-wing that they will not permit any serious change.
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As a distraction from the economic ills that plague him, Schroeder and his party have turned to vicious anti-Americanism. This is par for the course, with Schroeder riding to victory in 2002 on promises not to involve Germany in Iraq -- nevermind that no one was asking Germany to participate in any invasion.
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Merkel in contrast has promised to more closely ally Berlin with Washington and has emphasized the need for changes to the labor market to reduce unemployment. While unlikely to prove as radical as Margaret Thatcher, who some have likened her to, there is some cause for excitement by the fact that her shadow finance minister has proposed a flat tax of 25 percent. Notably Merkel has attempted to distance herself from such a move, which -- typisch Deutsch -- has raised German anxiety.
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It's worth highlighting that the euro is down in trading on predictions that Merkel is only expected to narrowly prevail.

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