Election day

A number of elections today. New York City mayor race seems to be a foregone conclusion and the New Jersey governor race is unlikely to produce any drama either. The big one is the Virginia governor race. I haven't been keeping up with it too much but I would give the edge to Democrat Tim Kaine. Even though Virginia is a conservative state the incumbent Democrat governor is popular and Kaine is the current Lt. Gov. I also think that a number of Republicans aren't particularly enthused with their nominee, Jerry Kilgore. In fact, a GOPer I know, who donates thousands of dollars a year to the party, threw away literature from the Kilgore campaign without even reading it, explaining that he had no interest in the guy.

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I expect the likely Kaine victory to be spun by Democrats as a proxy vote against Bush and a harbinger of things to come next year (just as the 1993 elections were a preview of things to come in 1994). I don't see it. If there was a rising tide of anti-Bush/Republican sentiment it would stand to reason that the elections in NYC and NJ -- very "blue" areas -- would tilt much more towards the Democrats. It will be interesting, however, to see how the down ballots are cast for Lt. Gov. and Attorney General. If the Dems win those -- especially AG -- that will definitely be a bad sign for the GOP. In any case I largely expect the status quo to prevail with Dems winning in NJ and VA and incumbent Bloomberg strolling to victory in NYC.

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The most interesting result for me is not those three races, but the propositions on the ballot in California that have been sponsored by Gov. Schwarzenegger. I have no idea how well they will do -- the polls indicate not well, but voter sentiment on referendum items are notoriously difficult to guage -- but I think everyone should be in favor of redistricting reform. How anyone can be against that is beyond me. Let's see how the people of California respond.