Election analysis

Some thoughts of mine on last week's election results:

• I remember when Republican George Allen defeated Democrat Mary Sue Terry in the 1993 Virginia governor's race. It was certainly a harbinger of things to come one year later when Republicans took over control of Congress. Allen won by 17.4 percent. This year Republican Bob McDonnell won by 17.42 percent.

• Rasmussen Reports polling firm, which has consistently shown President Obama's approval rating to be lower than other polls -- drawing accusations of Republican bias -- actually only predicted a 13 point win by McDonnell in its final poll.

• In the 1993 New Jersey gubernatorial election Republican Christine Todd Whitman defeated incumbent Democrat Jim Florio. Florio, like John Corzine in this year's election, was hugely unpopular for a massive tax increase he implemented as governor. Whitman won by one percent. This year Chris Christie prevailed by 4.1 percent.

• Rasmussen had predicted a 3 percent victory for Christie.

• Larry Sabato has pointed out that the last two times both Virginia and New Jersey flipped parties for the governor's mansions, in 1993 and 2005, the House of Representatives also experienced a change in party control the following year.

• In NY-23 the lesson appears to be that Republicans should have a primary process for choosing candidates instead of eleven party officials. The Republican and Conservative Party candidates captured a plurality of the vote in a district that went for Barack Obama the previous year. It also seems Democrat Bill Owens wasn't entirely honest in presenting himself to the voters, wasting little time in voting for a health care bill which contained provisions he said he was explicitly against.

• Yes, parochial factors played a role in these races. Creigh Deeds was a bad candidate. John Corzine was reviled. But Republicans don't win comfortably in New Jersey and by a landslide margin in Virginia solely because of the quality of candidates, something else was at work. Based on this polling data that something else was President Obama and disagreement with his policies. Democrats should be fearful of next year's elections.