Not neglect, just failure

Byron York:

In early November 2009, as the fight over Obamacare threatened to stretch all the way to New Years, I discussed the battle with a well-connected Democratic strategist. He wanted health care to pass, but he was eager for President Obama to turn his attention to the issues Americans cared about most: the economy and federal spending. "As soon as health care reform is over, he needs to pivot hard to becoming a deficit and spending hawk and a jobs creator," the strategist told me.

Of course, the health care fight didn't end quickly. Two days before Christmas, Politico reported that White House officials believed it would last until February -- after which Obama would make a "very hard pivot" to the jobs issue.

..."I don't get it," GOP pollster David Winston told me at the time. "I don't understand what he is doing. He's not addressing the No. 1 issue that Americans want him to address."

As analysts poke and prod the Democratic corpse in conducting their autopsy following this November's likely drubbing, I suspect we are likely to hear the question raised time and time again of why President Obama didn't devote more attention to the economy. It's a criticism, however, that is wildly misplaced. Obama hasn't neglected the economy -- the economy should be so fortunate -- rather he has simply prescribed the wrong medicine.

The White House is fully aware of the economy's problems. Obama campaigned on it and made fixing it a top priority upon entering office -- have we already forgotten the stimulus package? From Obama's perspective the problem had been addressed early on, with hundreds of billions of dollars worth of federal spending and tax breaks set to course their way through the economy's veins, and it was time to turn attention to other urgent matters such as expanding the government's role in health care and increased regulation of the financial sector. According to the teachings of Messrs. Keynes and Krugman, whose pronouncements are close to holy writ in Democratic circles, the only thing left to do was to sit back and let this tonic work its magic.

The administration was so confident in its policies would produce the desired turnaround that in April Vice President Biden predicted imminent job creation rates of 250,000-500,000 per month (last month saw private sector job creation of 67,000). June saw the kickoff of "recovery summer" while in August Treasury Secretary Geithner's boldly declared "Welcome to the Recovery."

But even if President Obama and his advisers admitted to themselves that the stimulus wasn't working as advertised, what were they to do? With fed interest rates already low and deficits surging, the Keynesian well of ideas was running dry. Of course they could have engaged in policies such as deregulation to get the economy back on track, but that would require diverging with core tenets of Democratic philosophy. Indeed, when the pressure finally became too great the best the White House could offer up was more of the same, with further tax credits and infrastructure spending.

It's not that President Obama has paid insufficient attention to the economy, it's that he has tried and failed.