Pre-election post-mortem

Sure, it's only September, but is there really any doubt the Democrats are in for a richly-deserved shellacking this November? Just look at some of the recent news stories. InTrade, along with many political analysts, seems pretty certain that the House is at least a goner:

Democrats will be sure to blame the economy for their woes, and there is some truth there, but it is far from a comprehensive explanation. Consider: in the 1982 mid-term elections when unemployment was 10.4 percent Republicans lost 27 seats in the House and zero in the Senate, retaining their 54 seat majority. Anyone want to bet the Democrats will retain 54 seats this time around? While Democrats may wish to cite Reagan's ability to articulate his vision as the Great Communicator as a factor, I don't think anyone can accuse President Obama of being a slouch in this regard.

Personally, I find voter disgust pretty easy to explain -- beyond the economy, people hate the Democratic agenda. It's not what they signed up for. Obama promised change and instead we've gotten more of the same: even more spending, a further expansion of government's role in health care, more bailouts and more regulation. My guess is that the stimulus bill and ObamaCare are particular sources of voter ire.

While divining voter motives is a tough task, there is perhaps an experiment that can be run this November. Here is a list of members of Congress who voted against either ObamaCare or ObamaCare and the stimulus (I don't think there was anyone who voted against the stimulus who voted for ObamaCare) from competitive districts (no more than D or R +5):

The list includes the member's district, name and partisan voting index (PVI). Here, meanwhile, is a list of those who voted for both the stimulus and ObamaCare and represent districts whose PVI also range from D +3 (Cooper) to R +5 (Peterson):

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It will be interesting to see which group has a higher survival rate. It's an imperfect test, however, as despite the first's group's notable votes against significant elements of the Democratic agenda they may be undone by their votes for Nancy Pelosi as House speaker.

Update: Ugh, I forgot to correct the list to account for various members that have left the House, are not up for re-election or have died. This eliminates Murtha, Gillibrand, Massa, Obey, Stupak and Sestak.