Thursday, July 07, 2005

London bombings

Here are my thoughts without having read any other comment or analysis:
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Were the bombers home-grown or foreign? Were they EU citizens? If so I wonder if this will have any impact on passport controls.
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As horrible as the attack is, in some ways it demonstrates the limited reach of Al Qaeda. Bombing the London tube isn't the most difficult operation. A much more effective attack would have been against London's financial district which would have potentially profound economic consequences.
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It will be interesting to see how effective the "ring of steel" will be in catching the terrorists responsible.
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Given all the prior arrests of suspected Islamic terrorists in Britain prior to today's attack it was just a matter of time before an attack there succeeded. Try enough times and you'll eventually prevail. It truly blows my mind that the U.S. has not experienced a terrorist attack since 9/11. But rest assured, one will happen.
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I don't know if I subscribe to the theory that the U.K. was targeted because conducting an attack in the U.S. would be so much more difficult. I don't believe it is any coincidence that the bombings occurred at the same time that the G-8 summit is being held in Gleneagles.
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Furthermore, and this is key, I think that future Al Qaeda attacks will continue to focus on Europe. The Madrid bombings were an unbelievable victory for them. A couple hundred dead Spaniards and Spain quickly voted to withdraw its troops from Iraq. The Europeans, Al Qaeda probably thinks, are much more responsive to terror attacks than Americans. Indeed, based on the few minutes of TV I saw this morning it seems that warnings have already been issued against both Denmark and Italy if they do not withdraw their troops.
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Britain's response here is vital -- they must not pull out their troops from either Afghanistan or Iraq. I have confidence that Tony Blair will not do so. His job has been made easier by the demand for a withdrawal from Afghanistan. If the terrorists had simply said Iraq -- a much more contentious point -- they may have had more success in promoting divisions on British foreign policy. There is more widespread agreement on the need to continue the Afghanistan mission.
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Even with Osama holed up in a cave somewhere AQ and its affiliates have proved that they are still a force to be reckoned with. As Bush said this morning, "The war on terror goes on."

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