Thinking about North Korea

Here's a dirty secret about North Korea's nuclear program that no one will admit to: there is nothing, short of military action (either invasion or a sustained bombing campaign), we can do about it.

Observers on the left tend to argue that all we need to do is sit down with North Korea and sign an agreement. We give them something, such as energy aid, and they give up the nukes. Then we carry out inspections to ensure that they are abiding by the terms of the agreement.

The thing is, we've been down that road before and it did not stop the North's nuclear ambitions. And even if we did sign such an agreement, how would it be enforced? What confidence is there that we could actually determine what's going on in the country? As James Lilley of the American Enterprise Institute has pointed out:

They have, in fact, 11,000 caves in North Korea. Newsweek identified at least 10 where they could have hidden nuclear facilities. The problem is you don't know what they have because they have deliberately blocked you from challenge inspections and from getting access to nuclear waste sites that could tell you how much plutonium there is.

So if we try to buy their terms and we sell them as basically good guys, we are playing their game. They can play the shell and pea game with us on this forever. They will try to make us prove the unknown but they won't let us get into their secret areas. They will let us get into Yongbyon, and our friends here were saying there is no more fissile material. Do we know this is happening in the 11,000 caves? We will never know. We will never know what they are doing because they have us blocked.

Plus there's the fact that North Korea has violated just about every agreement it has ever signed. There is absolutely no basis to trust them on anything.

Now, on the other hand, right-wing observers tend to argue that we should make no offers to the North Koreans and that what is needed is further isolation of the country. If we get South Korea and China (and to a lesser extent Russia) on board we can impose sanctions on the country that will tighten the screws so much that the regime will be forced to collapse -- or at the very least produce sufficient pain to give up its nuclear program.

This, however, is an illusion. North Korea is already isolated, a product of its juche philosophy that places a premium on self-reliance. Threatening Kim Jong Il with sanctions is akin to tossing Brer Rabbit into the briar patch. If there anything Pyongyang fears it's the opposite -- contact with the outside world. Indeed, it's what most communist regimes have traditionally feared -- which explains the Berlin Wall, prohibitions against travelling to the West and the jamming of Western broadcasts in Eastern Europe. It's a prime reason why the island of Cuba continues to persist as a communist outpost even as their comrades have turned into capitalist stooges. Does anyone think Cuba would still be ruled by Fidel if it shared a direct border with the U.S.?

The result of these two competing schools of thought is a North Korea policy that seems like an unholy amalgamation of the two. Basically we sit down at the table with the Stalinists, refuse to offer them anything, demand they give up their nuclear program and push China, Russia, South Korea and Japan to isolate the country until Pyongyang is more cooperative. Inevitably the talks fail and everyone scratches their heads over what to do.

Well, while the Bush Administration keeps trying to put these Humpty Dumpty talks back together again it seems the rest of the world is moving on. North Korea says that they won't be attending any more talks until we remove some sanctions that have been imposed due to Pyongyang's counterfeiting of U.S. currency -- something that is NOT in the cards. South Korea is busy investing in the North and trying to prop up a country whose collapse they see as a potential catastrophe.

Interestingly, China is also getting in on the act:

With floods of cash and a new policy of patience and friendly support, China has quietly penetrated the thick wall surrounding North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's regime - gaining significant leverage for the first time in one of the world's most closed societies. Chinese leaders have gained Mr. Kim's ear, sources say, with a message that the North can revitalize its economy while still holding tight political control.

In the past year, with Washington preoccupied, Beijing has bypassed US hopes that it would squeeze Kim and force him to drop his nuclear ambitions. Indeed, the once-heady "six-party process," started in 2003 to denuclearize Korea, appears defunct. Instead, Beijing pumped up investment to some $2 billion last year, and is helping to rebuild ports, create factories, and modernize energy sectors in what one US diplomat calls a "massive carrot-giving operation." Yet Beijing is not using such aid as a means to end the North's nuclear program.

If true, this is great news. Basically China is lying to the North for us and they're believing them. The North Koreans think that they can have the best of both worlds -- economic growth and continued tight control over the populace. But as China itself proves, that's not possible. Indeed, is it any wonder signs of dissent have increased in the country as trade with China has expanded and DVDs from the outside worth make their way in?

Seems to me that we've got a choice to make. We can continue with the current policy that has brought the North Korean people no closer to freedom and prosperity, or we can change course. Any policy towards North Korea must have as its highest priority helping the North Korean people. Any policy premised on sanctions that will only increase their misery in the hopes that it will lead to collapse is not only immoral but foolish. We do not help the North Koreans, nor hasten the collapse of Kim Jong Il, by making them weaker.