Let me first state that I am no expert on the Middle East. I regard myself as pro-Israel and have no real aversion to the use of military force. Having said all that I get a real knot in my stomach when I think about the current Israeli offensive in Lebanon. I do not seeing this ending very well for either Israel or the Lebanese people.
Israel is attempting to defeat an unconventional foe, Hezbollah, via conventional means -- namely overwhelming air power. They do not appear to have caused any significant damage to this group while images of dead Lebanese civilians are being broadcast throughout the world.
Intentionally or not this amounts to collective punishment of the Lebanese people. Yes, Hezbollah participates in the Lebanese government, but it has less than 20% of the seats in parliament. Clearly it is a minority player. Yet the bombing campaign is being felt accross the board, impacting the 80% of Lebanese who did not vote for this group. These are potential allies of Israel -- or at least neutral parties -- that are being alienated.
It's not the military campaign per se that I have a problem with -- Israel absolutely has a right to defend itself -- but what concerns me is that I just don't see it being effective. Worse, it appears likely to be counter-productive. The cream of Lebanese society -- those least likely to be sympathetic to Hezbollah -- is being driven from the country. Suffering is increasing, which in turn makes the extensive social services provided by Hezbollah more attractive. Rocket attacks have increased to an even faster clip than before and anything short of a clear Israeli victory will be a win for Hezbollah, who only has to survive to fight another day to be perceived by many as the victor.
I really hope I'm wrong -- my sympathy for Hezbollah is nil -- but I think Israel has gotten themselves into something that will only produce added grief.
Israel is attempting to defeat an unconventional foe, Hezbollah, via conventional means -- namely overwhelming air power. They do not appear to have caused any significant damage to this group while images of dead Lebanese civilians are being broadcast throughout the world.
Intentionally or not this amounts to collective punishment of the Lebanese people. Yes, Hezbollah participates in the Lebanese government, but it has less than 20% of the seats in parliament. Clearly it is a minority player. Yet the bombing campaign is being felt accross the board, impacting the 80% of Lebanese who did not vote for this group. These are potential allies of Israel -- or at least neutral parties -- that are being alienated.
It's not the military campaign per se that I have a problem with -- Israel absolutely has a right to defend itself -- but what concerns me is that I just don't see it being effective. Worse, it appears likely to be counter-productive. The cream of Lebanese society -- those least likely to be sympathetic to Hezbollah -- is being driven from the country. Suffering is increasing, which in turn makes the extensive social services provided by Hezbollah more attractive. Rocket attacks have increased to an even faster clip than before and anything short of a clear Israeli victory will be a win for Hezbollah, who only has to survive to fight another day to be perceived by many as the victor.
I really hope I'm wrong -- my sympathy for Hezbollah is nil -- but I think Israel has gotten themselves into something that will only produce added grief.
No comments:
Post a Comment